Canadians are crossing the border from British Columbia into Whatcom County at increasingly lower rates, according to recent data. For Blaine’s recreation companies, the effects of cross-border tensions are still uncertain.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic brought border traffic to a screeching halt in 2020, the number of Canadian visitors to Whatcom County had been steadily increasing year-over-year, according to Laurie Trautman, director of the Border Policy Research Institute at Western Washington University. That all changed earlier this year, when relations between Canada and the newly inaugurated Trump administration soured.
“We started seeing declines in Canadian vehicles in February, and March was probably the first time I ran the numbers,” Trautman said. “We saw a decline of 40% of Canadian vehicles entering Whatcom County. In the first two weeks of April we saw a decline of 52% compared to the previous April.”
Factors such as the strength of the Canadian dollar and the repeal of carbon taxes in British Columbia also play a role, but the results are clear: fewer and fewer Canadians are crossing the border. For towns like Blaine that depend on this traffic, such trends can be disastrous.
Blaine’s shopping, dining and gas businesses have been particularly hard-hit. The area’s recreation industry has felt the reverberations of the tourism losses, but locals remain the most frequent patrons of many recreation businesses.
Establishments like Semiahmoo Resort and Birch Bay Leisure Park rely on membership, making them less vulnerable to fluctuations in tourism than other parts of the area’s economy. And at Blaine Harbor, which provides docking for Canadian and American recreational boaters alike, there is still a high demand for marina space, according to Mike Hogan, public affairs administrator at the Port of Bellingham.
“We do have quite a few Canadian customers … in the past, we’ve had openings for moorage, but currently we have a waitlist at both harbors,” Hogan said. “That being said, the comments from the President have been fairly recent, so it’s still a little bit too early to tell what any long-term impacts might be.”
This uncertainty about the future also extends to Bellingham International Airport, another critical piece of the Whatcom County tourism economy. Hogan says demand at the airport remains strong, but recent data shows Canadian flight bookings to the U.S. for this summer lagging 70% compared to the same period last year, casting doubt on what the coming months might look like for Canada-to-Bellingham air travel.
As of now, it is hard to tell how recreation in Blaine might change with the tides of international politics. On a personal level, however, business owners stress that the goodwill between the U.S. and our neighbors to the north is not lost for good.
“We have really strong cross-border local connections, and those aren’t just economic,” Trautman said. “They’re about our families, our friends, our social fabric, and even our ability to respond to natural disasters.”
John Roy runs Birch Bay Bike Shop, offering bike sales and service to Birch Bay, Blaine and surrounding areas. Despite the tourism turmoil, Roy’s business is still going strong.
“I feel fortunate, because I know some Blaine businesses have been pretty heavily impacted,” Roy said. “I’ve had great interactions with our Canadian friends, because that’s truly how I look at it.”
But the ties that bind the people of Whatcom County to British Columbians run deep, in the recreation industry and beyond.
“It’s just an opportunity to be kind,” Roy said. “Especially with our Canadian friends, just to really let them know that we appreciate them and that they’re important to us.”
Jonah Billings (he/him) is a sports and recreation reporter for The Front. He is a second-year Western student and is majoring in journalism and history. In addition, he is a member of Western’s varsity cross-country and track and field teams. He enjoys running, reading and spending time with friends. You can reach him at jonahbillings.thefront@gmail.com.
